USD Index: County Economy Remained Flat in August

The University of San Diego Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for August was unchanged from July, it was announced Monday.

A big increase in residential building permits taken out in August and moderate climb in the amount of help-wanted advertising were offset by higher unemployment and declines in local stock prices, consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy, USD professor Alan Gin said.

He said the 0.1 percent gain in June was revised one-tenth of a point downward, so the economic indicators in two of the last three months in San Diego County have been flat. August was just 0.3 percent higher.

“Those two flat months, plus the fact that more components were down than up, raises some potential issues about the local economy,” Gin said.

“Right now, those issues are minor, and it would take more negative data in the months ahead before a red flag is raised.”

Even with the monthly uptick in joblessness, more than 30,000 positions have been created in the region over the past year, he said.

In specific components, according to Gin:

• Building permits were authorized for 223 homes, second only to July as the highest of the year, and the July figure was the best in around 18 months.

• The amount of help-wanted advertising climbed for the 20th month in a row.

• While the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance went up, the rate of joblessness remains at its lowest in more than three years.

• Consumer confidence turned negative for the first time in nine months.

• The components of the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators were mixed.

San Diego’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators stood at 121.7 in August, the highest level since March 2008. The recession low point was 100.7 in March 2009.

-City News Service